Estimation of heating system energy modeling profiles based on environmental monitoring records in Central-Southern Chile

Abstract

Data simulated for occupancy profiles, usually based on standard occupancy schedules, must be validated against real measurements, and many studies have pointed out the gap between them. This problem is more pronounced in homes that are not heated by grid-connected energy sources, such as wood-burning stoves, because the meter cannot provide a real-time estimate. In Central-South Chile, 74% of homes are heated by wood stoves, causing an acute problem of air pollution in several urban areas. The government is trying to solve this problem, but at the moment there is no data on occupancy profiles, hence it is not possible to estimate the energy intensity for heating. This exploratory study aims to clarify to what extent occupancy profiles can be estimated from PM 2.5 pollution levels. To this end, publicly available data on PM 2.5 concentrations in 17 cities in central-south Chile was used as a proxy to build occupancy schedules for homes heated by wood stoves. The results show that there is a clear relationship between pollution levels and occupancy intensity, and that the latter does not follow the schedules outlined in international standards or building codes. The results and methodology can be replicated in cities where air pollution is driven by wood stoves, allowing public authorities to have access to accurate occupancy schedules and providing them with reliable data to address local air pollution problems.