Construcción, vivienda y crédito. Su relevancia en la economía española

Abstract

The article analyses the effect of construction on the economy supporting the argument that construction sector has strongly contributed to economic growth through its multipliers effects. Relationship among house-building and credit supply is approached using a VAR model with quarterly data of starts and numbers of mortgage loans and estimating the long term relationship in a two-period time (1962-1981 and 1982-2012). The structural VAR with break trend estimated suggests that credit flows and starts relationship has changed from one period to another being significant in the long term during 1982-2012. It gives empirical evidence to recognize the relevance of credit flows to explain the building cycle previously to the credit crunch.